The origins of the First World War

Austria-Hungary's leaders alone actively planned from early July 1914 to go to war, pursuing a Balkan rather than a world war with single-minded determination

Step 1: Alexander Watson's 'Ring of Steel' (2014) focuses specifically on Habsburg decision-making in July 1914. Step 2: Watson argues that 'Austria-Hungary's leaders were exceptional, for they alone actively planned from early July 1914 to take their country to war.' Step 3: Crucially, Watson specifies that the war Austria-Hungary wanted was a Balkan war (against Serbia), not necessarily a world war, but they pursued it 'with startlingly single-minded determination.' Step 4: Watson also noted 'the ease with which they contemplated war' as particularly disconcerting. Step 5: This view contradi

Germany's humiliation of Russia over the annexation pushed Russia firmly towards Britain and France

Step 1: Austria formally annexed Bosnia-Herzegovina in 1908, which Russia and Serbia strongly opposed as it violated existing agreements. Step 2: In spring 1909, Germany issued what amounted to an ultimatum to Russia, demanding it formally acknowledge the annexation. Russia, still weakened after its defeat by Japan in 1904-5 and the 1905 Revolution, had no choice but to comply. Step 3: This public humiliation of Russia had an unintended but critical consequence – it pushed Russia decisively closer to Britain and France. Step 4: As the chapter notes, 'Germany's willingness to humiliate Russia w

Fell from 22.9% in 1880 to 13.6% in 1913

Step 1: Kennedy's data is specifically cited in the chapter to illustrate Britain's relative economic decline. Step 2: The exact figures given are: 'Whereas in 1880 the United Kingdom still contained 22.9 per cent of world manufacturing output, that figure had shrunk to 13.6 per cent by 1913.' Step 3: Similarly, its share of world trade fell from 23.2% in 1880 to 14.1% in 1911-1913. Step 4: Kennedy emphasised that Britain was not declining absolutely – it was 'not because it wasn't growing, but because others were growing faster', particularly the USA and Germany. Step 5: This relative decline

The plan involved marching through neutral Belgium to outflank France, violating the 1839 Treaty of London and triggering Britain's declaration of war

Step 1: The Schlieffen Plan, drawn up as early as 1904 and perfected by winter 1905, was Germany's core military strategy based on a two-front war scenario. Step 2: The plan's key feature was outflanking French defences by marching through neutral Belgium, reasoning that Russia would take several weeks to fully mobilise, allowing a quick defeat of France first. Step 3: Belgium's neutrality was guaranteed by the Treaty of London (1839), which Britain was a signatory to. Violating this treaty was what the chapter refers to as 'a piece of paper'. Step 4: Germany hoped Britain would remain neutral